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Lee Davy opines that 2019 will be an exciting year for some of the online and live poker operators who exist in the long tail of the poker ecosystem.

Maybe Kevmath knows the math (I don’t), but even without the hard data, you know that when it comes to the online poker market, Vilfredo Pareto’s 80/20 principle will be at work with 20% of the market responsible for 80% of the business.

If you are a visual learner, then maybe this graph will help.

Power Law (or Zipf’s Law), and it achieved greater prominence in 2004 when it appeared in a Wired magazine article called The Long Tail by Chris Anderson. The article was a hit, and two years later the theory became a book: The Long Tail: Why The Future of Business is Selling Less of More.

Ironically, despite Anderson’s article being a hit, the book suggests that the future of commerce and culture isn’t hits (the short, fat end of the graph), but in the misses (the infinite long tail of the chart). Taking Amazon as an example, the revenue earned through the combined income of the long tail dwarfs sales of Taylor Swift’s hits.

If the axes were Online Poker Company and Revenue, then the short head of the tail would contain the likes of PokerStars and partypoker – the behemoths that attract most of the volume and revenue. And the long tail would include the likes of Unibet, William Hill and Ladbrokes.

I think 2019 is going to be the year of the long tail.

Online Poker

The Caveat

When referring to the success of the long tail, I am thinking more of the success of the companies that exist in that ecosystem, and not the likes of The IDN Poker Network, who operates at the short end of the tail because they own a large percentage of the skins that exist in the long tail.

Run It One Poker

In 2016, the multiple World Series of Poker (WSOP) bracelet winner and online high stakes cash game legend shared his manifesto of the ideal online poker room and ended with the now iconic I am going to give it my best shot.

The idea behind Run It Once Poker was born, with the birth Q1, 2017. As you know, the team is way behind schedule, but for me, the delay is playing into Galfond’s hands because it’s allowed them to create more tension around the launch, something Galfond has done expertly with a series of well-timed and choreographed blog posts.